Tag: finance

What’s in my retirement portfolio (Jan 2026)?

RobHLeave a comment

This is a monthly look at what’s in my retirement portfolio. The original post is here.

Portfolio Construction

The retirement portfolio is spread across a bunch of accounts:

  • 6 RRIF accounts
    • 3 for me (Questrade, QTrade, Wealthsimple)
    • 3 for my spouse (Questrade, QTrade)
  • 2 TFSA accounts (Questrade)
  • 4 non-registered accounts, (1 for me, 1 for my spouse, 2 joint, all at Questrade)

The view post-payday

I pay myself monthly in retirement, so that’s a good trigger to update this post. On January 26, this is what it looks like:

The portfolio is dominated by my ETF all-stars, but if you’ve been following along, you’ll see a few changes.

  • As mentioned in a previous post, I did some shifting around and you now see XAW and XIC increasing their contribution to the portfolio at the expense of XGRO.
  • I also tidied up some extra funds that aren’t needed — VCN was replaced with XIC1, and I turfed some small holdings.
  • I sold more HXT than I needed to for my monthly paycheque, and when I discovered the mistake2, I just bought XIC instead.
  • And, I did my quarterly Norbert’s Gambit to shift some AOA to XGRO. And again, I came out ahead!

Plan for the next month

The asset-class split looks like this; you can read about my asset-allocation approach to investing over here.

It’s looking pretty close to the targets I have, which are unchanged:

  • 5% cash or cash-like holdings like ICSH and ZMMK
  • 15% bonds (most are buried in XGRO and AOA, some are in XCB)
  • 20% Canadian equity (mostly based on ETFs that mirror the S&P/TSX)
  • 36% US equity (dominated by ETFs that mirror the S&P 500)
  • 24% International equity (mostly, but not exclusively, developed markets)

Overall

Net worth overall is up month over month, reversing a 2 month losing streak and hitting a new all-time-high:

My VPW-calculated salary resumed its upward trend, also hitting an all-time high.

My QTrade RRIFs should move perhaps this week, but I’m no longer confident about that. More on that once resolved.

  1. Which, in my mind, are equivalent. This post goes in lots more detail. ↩︎
  2. I had to do some quick manual calculations because I had already updated my auto-calculating spreadsheet to reflect fewer RRIF accounts. My RRIF transfers are 2 months in progress and counting. I guess trying to move a RRIF near the end of the year was a bad idea. ↩︎

CPP and OAS as part of a retirement plan

RobHLeave a comment

One of the confusing questions I got from my international colleagues when I announced my retirement was “what’s the retirement age in Canada”? And, after thinking about it, said, “There isn’t one that I know of”, which is, strictly speaking, correct.

However, for many Canadians (and, I suppose, for many people around the world), “retirement age” equates to “the age where I can collect my pension”. For me, the equivalent statement was “the time when my retirement savings were sufficient1” (you can read about the steps I took here). I don’t have a private pension through my employer, so CPP, OAS and my own savings are all I have to sustain my needs throughout retirement.

CPP (Canadian Pension Plan) and (possibly2) OAS (Old Age Supplement) are two sources of income that will eventually make up part of my retirement income, but not for a while. For the time being, my retirement income comes from a mix of non-registered asset sales (about 2/3 of my 2025 household income) and RRIF payments (about 1/3 of my 2025 household income)3. My advisor suggested waiting as long as possible to collect on CPP/OAS, which is age 70 for both.

But maybe, if you haven’t retired yet, you haven’t really thought too much about these things4? Here’s a quick primer.

What’s CPP and what’s it worth to me?

CPP applies to anybody who has contributed to the plan; how much you contribute annually is captured on your T4 slips. You can see your lifetime contributions5 by logging into your My Service Canada Account. It is the history of these contributions6 that ultimately determine what your annual pension will be in the year you first start taking it.

The first year you are eligible to receive CPP is the year you turn 607; every month you wait after turning 60 increases your monthly payment. The absolute maximum CPP you could collect would be waiting until you turn 708. The Feds lay it all out here.

The absolute maximum monthly CPP you could possibly get as a 65 year old is $1507.65 in January 2026 per the Feds9. Since I retired early, and 18 year-old me worked a part-time minimum wage job, my CPP will be less than that. (The CPP calculation takes your best 32 years of earnings into account).

What’s OAS and what is it worth to me?

OAS (“Old Age Security”) applies to anybody who has lived in the country long enough10. OAS can start at age 65, and be delayed until as late as age 70. Like CPP, OAS rewards those who start payments later than age 6511. You get an OAS supplement of 10% when you hit 75.

The absolute maximum monthly OAS payment in the first quarter of 2026 is $742.31 if you’re under 75 and $816.5412 if you’re over per the Feds. (These amounts are adjusted every quarter in accordance with inflation rates.)

The wrinkle with OAS is that it’s income-tested. If you make too much money, you’re going to have to pay some of it back. If you really make too much money, you’ll have to give it all back. This is commonly known as “OAS Clawback”13.

The magic of CPP and OAS

CPP and OAS payments are both indexed to inflation, for as long as you collect it. This is key for me personally — none of my other income sources are inflation-proof, so the more I can get that is inflation-protected, the better. That’s part of the reason I’m planning on delaying collecting CPP and OAS until I’m 70 — that way, I can maximize the inflation-protected income. The other reason I’m delaying these payments is to try to avoid OAS clawback. The earlier I take RRIF money out, the lower my RRIF income will be later in retirement, when I have to start adding CPP to my income. I have no idea if I will avoid the clawback because it depends on the performance of specific elements of my portfolio. But try I will.

Estimating CPP and OAS for VPW

My decumulation strategy is based on VPW (Variable Percentage Withdrawal). I’ve talked about it previously over here and here. VPW requires, as an input, the value of a future pension. So how do I go about estimating that? Any reasonable estimate might want to ignore what the feds put on the periodic CPP summaries they send out because those estimates are assuming you’re retiring at 65, and working at a similar salary level (of course, if that’s your plan, then it’s perfectly fine — but it wasn’t mine :-))

All good estimates start from the lifetime contributions table you can find at My Service Canada. From there I’ve given a few tools a spin:

PWL Capital Tool

https://research-tools.pwlcapital.com/research/cpp

This tool has a lot of neat features, but be careful. The model bakes in both inflation estimates and wage inflation estimates that are changeable, but not immediately obvious.

CPP Calculator

https://www.cppcalculator.com/

This is one I recommended previously in Tools I Use, but the upload feature has been broken for a while now. It still works by entering it manually, but I now prefer the tool below….

Finiki CPP and QPP Calculator

https://www.finiki.org/wiki/CPP_and_QPP_calculator

The Finiki tool is now my favourite because it’s available as a worksheet (Google Sheets, Excel and Libre Office all supported), and all you need to do is enter in your pension contributions. The current version (2.3) hasn’t been updated with the latest YMPE values, but it’s a trivial exercise to update them.

  1. “sufficient” means different things for different people. You have to have a budget, and you have to have an idea what sort of estate, if any, you’re intending to leave behind. ↩︎
  2. I figure my odds are 50/50 that my combined CPP+RRIF income when I hit 70 will render me ineligible for OAS. ↩︎
  3. I am not planning on actually working for a living anymore; there are all kinds of rules concerning the interplay of CPP and employment income, but I’m not talking about them here because that scenario doesn’t apply to me. ↩︎
  4. Or, if you were a cynic like me, figured that it wouldn’t exist by the time I got to an age where I’d be collecting it. Seems like the pension plan is currently in pretty good shape. ↩︎
  5. Starting at age 18. ↩︎
  6. Mostly. If you took a leave from employment to raise a family, there is special treatment which could increase your pension. ↩︎
  7. You get 36% less of a monthly payout by starting at age 60 compared to age 65. ↩︎
  8. You get 42% more monthly compared to age 65. ↩︎
  9. You would have to be at maximum pensionable earnings for 39 years between the ages of 18 and 65 to get this amount. (47 years less the 8 worst years of earnings). ↩︎
  10. OAS can be estimated by using the Canada.ca calculator which is down at the moment: ↩︎
  11. Details at https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/old-age-security/when-start.html ↩︎
  12. Which, if you’ve been paying attention, is 10% more than the benefit for someone under age 75. ↩︎
  13. OAS is progressively reduced if you make more than $95k in 2026. You get no OAS at all if you make more than ~$155k at ages 65-74, $160.5k for ages 75+. These numbers are modified 4 times a year based on inflation. ↩︎

What’s in my retirement portfolio (Dec 2025)?

RobH5 Comments

This is a monthly look at what’s in my retirement portfolio. The original post is here.

Portfolio Construction

The retirement portfolio is spread across a bunch of accounts:

  • 6 RRIF accounts (2 for me, 3 for my spouse, 1 for me at an alternative provider as a test)
  • 2 TFSA accounts
  • 4 non-registered accounts, (1 for me, 1 for my spouse, 2 joint)

The target for the overall portfolio is unchanged:

  • 80% equity, spread across Canadian, US and global markets for maximum diversification
  • 15% Bond funds, from a variety of Canadian, US and global markets
  • 5% cash, held in savings-like ETFs.

You can read about my asset-allocation approach to investing over here.

The view post-payday

I pay myself monthly in retirement, so that’s a good trigger to update this post. On December 23, this is what it looks like:

Retirement holdings, December 2025

The portfolio is dominated by my ETF all-stars; anything not on that page is held in a non-registered account and won’t be fiddled with unless it’s part of my monthly decumulation. Otherwise I’ll rack up capital gains for no real benefit.

There aren’t really any notable changes this month — AOA’s contribution was down a bit this month, largely due to an unfavourable change in the USD/CAD exchange rate (down about 3% month over month, back down to a level not seen since around May this year). I recalculate the FX rate every month1 since I track my net worth in CAD so I always have an apples-to-apples comparison. I don’t stress too much about the FX rate as it tends to cut both ways. Sometimes it’s a lift to my numbers, sometimes not. In the end, I suppose it all evens out. I tracked my snapshot FX rates starting in February2, just for illustration:

Monthly USD/CAD rates on payday day

Plan for the next month

The asset-class split looks like this

Retirement portfolio by asset class, December 2025

It’s looking pretty close to the targets I have, which are unchanged:

  • 5% cash or cash-like holdings like ICSH and ZMMK
  • 15% bonds (almost all are buried in XGRO and AOA)
  • 20% Canadian equity (mostly based on ETFs that mirror the S&P/TSX)
  • 36% US equity (dominated by ETFs that mirror the S&P 500)
  • 24% International equity (mostly, but not exclusively, developed markets)

The end of the year will mean more distributions from my holdings; in my RRIF accounts they are set to DRIP since I only hold AOA/XGRO/ICSH in these accounts. The rest I redeploy to the asset classes that are short funds; typically this means investing in one of the *EQT funds since the bond complement of the portfolio frequently moves above the 15% target.

Overall

Net worth overall is down slightly month over month, but up a little over 10% from the start of the year. Hard to be unhappy about that.

My VPW-calculated salary took a slight decline, breaking the 7 month growth streak. It ends the year a shade under 6% larger than my first paycheque. Not bad. I don’t recall many years where I got a 6% raise 😉

Next month will end my relationship with QTrade as I move the final 3 RRIF accounts to Questrade; I had thought December would be the final month, but as you’ll see in my next post, a (hopefully) small wrinkle has delayed this.

  1. Using =googlefinance(“USDCAD”) of course ↩︎
  2. February because I only thought to start tracking that a month in. January’s rate will be lost to the sands of time. Or I could add it back using the official FX rates, I suppose. ↩︎

News: HISA Table updated, TD adds free-to-trade ETFs

RobHLeave a comment

High Interest Savings Page Updated

As reported last week, the USA cut their prime rates while Canada did not. The latest rates are now reflected in the HISA and short-term bond table (Canada & US). No changes for at least 6 weeks at this rate. Most cash I hold in my retirement savings is invested in an ultra-short-term bond fund, namely ICSH (one of my ETF all-stars) so I can squeeze out a few more basis points on my cash holdings.

TD Cuts Trading fees on 100 ETFs

TD seems to be upping its game. Not only are they throwing free money around, but an observant reader (thanks, big brother 🙂 ) alerted me to a recent change. You can read all about it here, but the skinny is that they cut trading fees on a list of 100 ETFs. Paying trading fees of any kind seems to be a dying business model, so it’s nice to see TDDI join the free club, at least a little bit. Some of these ETFs are even worth holding; I’ll save you the trouble and show you which ones:

NameSymbolWhat it holds
Vanguard S&P 500 IndexVFVLargest US Companies
SPDR S&P 500SPYLargest US Companies in USD
Vanguard 500 IndexVOOSame as SPY
iShares Russell 2000IWMSmall cap US Equity in USD
TD all-in-onesTEQT, TGRO, TBAL, TCON100% Equity, 90% Equity, 60% Equity, 30% Equity. Read more here and here.
TD Aggregate Bond IndexTDBCanadian gov’t and corp bonds.1
TD International EquityTPEDeveloped international market equity.2
TD US EquityTPU/TPU.USimilar to VFV/SPY3
TD Canadian EquityTTP300 Canadian stocks (aka “the Canadian market”)4
TD Cash Management TCSH/TUSD.UUltra short term debt in CAD/USD5
Vanguard all-in-onesVEQT, VGRO, VBAL, VCNS100% Equity, 80% Equity, 60% Equity, 40% Equity
Vanguard Canadian Agg BondVABCanadian gov’t and corp bonds6
Vanguard FTSE GlobalVXCAll equity ex-Canada (65% US Equity)
Vanguard FTSE DevelopedVIUAll developed equity ex-North America7
Vanguard US Total MarketVUN/VTI~3500 US Stocks in CAD/USD (aka “The US Market”)8
Vanguard FTSE Canada VCNTop 200 Canadian Stocks, so similar to TTP9
Newly free-to-trade ETFs at TDDI that are moneyengineer.ca approved

All the above funds would be worthy of consideration since they adhere to my rules about being passively managed, low cost, and aligned with my asset-allocation strategy. The simplest purchases here would be one of the TD or Vanguard all-in-ones (new to all-in-ones? read about them here) best aligned with your risk profile. There’s a bunch of other ones that aren’t of interest to me — bitcoin, leveraged, actively managed, segment-based…nah, I’m good.

  1. Used in TGRO, TBAL, TCON ↩︎
  2. No “emerging” market exposure. Used in TEQT, TGRO, TBAL, TCON ↩︎
  3. TPU is used in TEQT, TGRO, TBAL, TCON ↩︎
  4. Used in TEQT, TGRO, TBAL, TCON ↩︎
  5. Similar to my use of ZMMK/ICSH ↩︎
  6. Used in VGRO, VBAL, VCNS ↩︎
  7. Used in VEQT, VGRO, VBAL, VCNS ↩︎
  8. Used in VEQT, VGRO, VBAL, VCNS ↩︎
  9. Used in VEQT, VGRO, VBAL, VCNS ↩︎

Mini-Review: ValueInvesting.io Backtesting

RobHLeave a comment

“Backtesting” is a commonly-used tactic to see how well the portfolio you have (or are considering) would have performed historically. While “past performance does not guarantee future results” it’s better than not knowing.

I stumbled upon valuetesting.io when I was trying to backtest…something, I don’t really remember what I was up to. Anyway, my random internet walk found valueinvesting.io, which seems to be chock full of all kinds of tools that I haven’t looked at, so I’m just going to focus on the backtesting tools, which I did spend a few hours playing around with. You have to navigate to https://valueinvesting.io/backtest-portfolio to access this portion, and if you want to save portfolios, you have to create an account.

So what, in a nutshell, does this tool do? In their words:

Our portfolio backtesting tool allows you to evaluate the historical performance of up to 3 portfolios. We support 2 portfolio types: asset classes and tickers (stock, ETF, mutual funds). Multiple backtesting scenarios are supported such as periodic capital inflows or outflows, allocation rebalancing frequency and leverage type. Our tool provides historical returns, risk metrics, drawdowns and rolling returns information about your selected portfolios.

https://valueinvesting.io/backtest-portfolio

Let’s take a look at the two kinds of portfolio types they support: asset classes and tickers.

Backtesting using asset classes

The downside of this tool as a Canadian investor is pretty obvious when you try to build a portfolio using asset classes. (Asset classes are integral to the way I think about my retirement portfolio — you can read more about my approach here.) There’s no “Canadian Equity” category to choose (boo!).

The class that would hold the most Canadian equity would be “Intl Developed ex-US Market”1, so let’s compare that to say the “US Large Cap” (which I take to be a good proxy for the S&P 500).

The good old S&P has left the rest of the developed world in the dust, it seems…Well, except for THIS year:

Anyway, the asset classes are good fun and all, but without a Canadian index to track, it’s not too useful to me. (And, inexplicably, nowhere could I find a definition of any of these in the tool, and an email to the support address remained unanswered at the time of publication). So let’s move on to something more interesting, namely the ticker backtesting!

Ticker Backtesting

As the name implies, this portion allows you to enter tickers, and there’s full and complete support for Canadian ETFs that I tried.

So of course I immediately tried to build my idealized portfolio, which is what my “What’s in my Retirement Portfolio” would look like without the non-registered assets2.

The problem? XEQT and XGRO (two of my ETF all-stars) haven’t been around all that long, and so I can’t backtest very far. No matter, by looking at the composition of XEQT and XGRO and doing some clever math, I can create the equivalent decomposed portfolio:

And I can prove that I got it right by backtesting the two against each other. Pretty good, eh?

So with my decomposed portfolio at the ready, I can compare its performance long-term against (for example) just buying the S&P 500 index (VOO) or the International Developed ex-US index (VEA).

As expected, my portfolio has quite a bit poorer performance than the S&P, but better than the International ex-US. The bond/cash component smooths out the standard deviations (that’s “volatility”) so my worst years (although still a bit scary) are still a bit less than experience of owning 100% equity.

One more thing to look at — this backtesting assumes we don’t rebalance anything. That’s not correct, since that’s one of the benefits of holding ETFs like AOA, XGRO and XEQT — they automatically rebalance periodically. valueinvesting.io lets you choose monthly, quarterly, semiannually and annually. I know for a fact that AOA rebalances twice a year, so we will assume XGRO/XEQT do the same. This is what the result looks like:

This reduces the volatility and the return a bit, which if you stop and think about it, makes sense: equities consistently outperform bonds and cash over time so the rebalancing exercise makes sure the equities remain at an 80% contribution to the portfolio.

Conclusion

The backtesting portion of valueinvesting.io is a good tool to test various combinations of ETFs / stocks you may be interested in. There’s not very much documentation on the site, but it’s easy enough to use. The free account (which requires registration) is enough to get you that far.

  1. Did a bunch of tests and determined that VEA was the ETF that matched the performance of this index most closely. This ETF is about 11% Canadian Equity. ↩︎
  2. The non-registered assets are being sold off, little by little, to fund my retirement. This year, they have provided about 2/3 of my “salary” (RRIF minimum payments gave me the other 1/3), so I am –slowly– drifting toward the ideal portfolio. The AOA percentage in the ideal portfolio will get smaller over time as I transmogrify it as needed to XGRO using Norbert’s Gambit. ↩︎