Tag: periodic table

construction worker putting earplugs on her ears

Advice: Stop listening to the noise

RobHLeave a comment

As a self-directed investor, it can be challenging to avoid the constant noise of the latest and greatest moves in the industry. A sample of the kinds of things that have landed in my inbox lately will hopefully illustrate this point:

  • “Single stock SpaceX ETFs are coming”
  • “This 11% dividend is a screaming deal”
  • “This divvie is the ultimate ‘pick and shovel’ play on Elon, Inc”
  • “Should we have sold in May and walked away?”

The noise is nearly impossible to avoid; there always seems to be one company, one trend, one segment, one market, one product that’s just booming while your portfolio languishes.

What’s the reason this is so? Beyond the need for news sources to produce content, I mean? A peek at Blackrock’s “periodic table“1 of market performance gave me an answer, maybe.

This table illustrates the performance of thirteen segments of the market on an annual basis. What is evident is that the “hot” segment keeps changing. What was hot last year rarely repeats this year. Take for example this year’s darling, Commodities. This index can be found over at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crb.asp and tracks (among other things) the price of oil, gold, copper, wheat…and I’m sure you’ve noticed the recent uptick in ETFs covering this space (or a subspace):

  • GlobalX has three new silver-focused ETFs (SLVX, SVCC, and SVCL) and three commodity producers ETFs (COMX, CMCC and CMCL)
  • BMO launched a covered call gold bullion ETF (ZWGD.T) and a hedged broad commodity ETF (ZCOM.F) this year
  • TD launched TCOM which looks like it’s achieving exposure to broad commodities markets through swaps and derivatives2

My sense is that all of these ETFs were launched in an effort to attract FOMO investors who are trying to ride the commodities wave this year. Commodities as a category aren’t a terrible thing to invest in, as the Annualized column shows — they have actually performed pretty decently over the past decade — but still behind US Equity, Emerging Market Equity, Japan Equity and European Equity indices.

There’s always going to be some segment that’s on fire in a given year. Predicting which segment that might be isn’t consistently possible, so my advice is to ignore the noise and don’t chase the latest shiny object. Over long periods of time, it’s hard to beat investing in boring index equity funds.

  1. There’s a few of these kinds of tables floating about; a more Canadian-centric one can be found at https://www.stingyinvestor.com/SC/PeriodicTableofAnnualReturns.pl ↩︎
  2. The “Investment Approach” linked here makes my head hurt ↩︎

How I think about investing: Asset classes

RobH9 Comments

Passive investing while ensuring good diversification has been my strategy for decades. But how do I define “diversification”? For me, it’s always been about paying attention to how much of my total portfolio was invested in each of five1 asset classes and keeping them aligned with my targets:

  • Cash or cash equivalents
  • Bonds2
  • Canadian Stocks
  • US Stocks
  • International Stocks3

I got this idea from my last financial advisor who provided me with a lovely Cerlox4 bound annual report showing me how hard they were working on my behalf5. The report included a pie chart of how my investments broke down. This is what that pie chart looks like in my portfolio this morning:

Retirement portfolio by asset class, March 28, 2025

This pie chart has been my guiding principle: have a target percentage for each asset class in mind, and adjust your portfolio as needed to keep the percentages in line. This simple principle has been adopted by so-called asset allocation ETFs aka “all-in-ones” like (my personal favourites) XGRO6 and AOA7.

But are these even the right asset classes? Where are REITs8? Where’s precious metals? Where’s Bitcoin9? What’s your bond duration? Do you have enough exposure to high-growth geographies?

Short answer: just like I’m too lazy to pick stocks, I’m too lazy (and not smart enough) to pick a “winner” of a given asset class. The “periodic table” of investment returns by asset class is a must-read for DIY enthusiasts out there: https://themeasureofaplan.com/investment-returns-by-asset-class/ (go ahead, take a look, I’ll wait).

The folks at Measure of a Plan agree that trying to figure out the “hot” asset class is a very difficult task:

It’s no easy feat to pick the winner in a given year. The asset class rankings appear to be randomly tossed about over time, with the top performer in one year often falling down to the middle or bottom of the table in the next year.

https://themeasureofaplan.com/investment-returns-by-asset-class/

By keeping an eye on the pie chart, and shifting investments to align with my targets, I’m never at risk at being overweight in any one asset-class, and beaten-down asset-classes naturally get more funds to get the percentages right. It’s naturally causing “buy low, sell high” behaviour.

So: what about the asset classes I’m using? Are 5 asset classes too many? Too few? I don’t know. “Good enough” is sort of my philosophy in the spirit of trying to keep things simple.

The spreadsheet I’ve used to help me track my portfolio breakdown is found here. In future posts, I’ll talk a bit about how to make it work for you.

  1. For a long time, “cash” was not part of the consideration. Leading up to retirement, I started to carry a 5% cash weighting to help cushion market swings. ↩︎
  2. In years past, I did try to keep track of short-term versus mid-term versus long-term bonds. I gave up on that. ↩︎
  3. In years past, I did try to keep track of developed markets versus emerging markets. I gave up on that. ↩︎
  4. I had to look up how this was spelled. https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/cerlox ↩︎
  5. The fact that this report looked the same as the reports generated by two other advisors led me to the conclusion that my hard working advisor was perhaps being assisted by commercial software. ↩︎
  6. Overview of XGRO’s asset allocation strategy: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/literature/product-brief/ishares-core-etf-portfolios-brochure-en.pdf ↩︎
  7. Overview of AOA’s asset allocation strategy: https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/product-brief/ishares-core-esg-allocation-brief.pdf ↩︎
  8. My first list of asset classes prepared circa 20 years ago did include REITs but I dropped that class, figuring (perhaps incorrectly) that the bond portion of the portfolio was good enough. Doing a bit of digging, I see that both AOA and XGRO hold REITs, and both consider them “equity” investments. ↩︎
  9. It’s actually obligatory for any article on investing to mention one (or more) cryptocurrencies, and/or one (or more) meme stocks 😉 ↩︎