Tag: t1135

close up view of colorful liquids in laboratory glasswares

Are my portfolio’s asset allocation targets “correct”?

RobHLeave a comment

A key aspect of my investment philosophy is to have targets for each of the asset classes I invest in. Because I like to keep things simple, my asset classes are rather broad1:

  • Cash, which includes ultra-short-term bonds (bonds with durations measured in days, not years)
  • Bonds2, which means corporate and government bonds from multiple geographies with various and assorted durations
  • Canadian Equity: Canadian stocks
  • US Equity: US Stocks
  • International Equity: Stocks that don’t sit in North America

The targets I’ve used for a few years now are

  • 5% Cash
  • 15% Bonds
  • 20% Canadian Equity
  • 36% US Equity
  • 24% International Equity

But where did those target numbers come from?

The easy answer is that they are based on the target number of the Canadian 80/20 fund I use in my retirement portfolio, namely XGRO, one of my ETF all-stars. XGRO’s makeup is actually

  • 20% Bonds
  • 20% Canadian Equity
  • 36% US Equity
  • 24% International Equity

The immediately obvious difference between XGRO and my target is the presence of “Cash” in my target, something XGRO doesn’t have3. “Cash” was a recent arrival to the portfolio, a decision I took to accommodate the presence of a Cash Cushion in my portfolio. The Cash Cushion is an integral part of my chosen decumulation strategy, VPW. So rather than keep the Cash Cushion as something set apart from my asset allocation model, I chose to create a new asset to track. 5% was a small and round number, and is about 2x the value of the Cash Cushion today.

That 5% is almost all invested in ultra-short term bond funds so perhaps you could also argue that I never stopped holding 20% bonds in my portfolio4; I just segmented that category a bit more precisely.

But why 20% bonds? Shouldn’t a retiree have a greater portion of bonds to protect against market downturns5? Habit, I suppose. I’ve held 20% bonds for decades now, since well before I retired. I don’t see any reason to change that now. I’m hoping my retirement will go on for decades, and so having a good chunk of equity is a good way to make sure my portfolio returns outpace inflation and offer some protection against outliving my money.

So 80% equity it is; but are the allocations between Canada, the US and International markets the right allocations? Like I said, I basically picked the equity targets to match what the percentage allocations are in XGRO. If I look a bit further at the other *GRO funds (TGRO, VGRO, ZGRO), I find that XGRO is a bit of an outlier with respect to International Equity allocation:

ETF% CAD% US% Int’l
XGRO (Blackrock)203624
TGRO (TD)626.735.617.8
VGRO (Vanguard)253520
ZGRO (BMO)204020
Average for all22.936.720.4

This tells me a few things

  • My US allocation target of 36% is justified by looking across multiple funds
  • My International Equity target is probably too high if I rely on the wisdom of (small) crowds.

Since I like dealing with round numbers, a case could certainly be made for my targets to instead look like

  • 23% Canadian Equity
  • 37% US Equity
  • 20% International Equity

Using these targets and looking at my current holdings would require me to move about 3% of my International equity holdings into Canadian equity.

I can control my equity allocations in normal monthly transactions, somewhat — since a good chunk of my retirement salary is funded by selling non-registered assets, I get to choose (somewhat) what equity class to liquidate. Here’s the problem I see — my International Equity component in my non-registered account is SCHF, which trades in USD. Liquidating SCHF is possible. but the small problem with SCHF is that it’s denominated in USD, and thanks to my current credit card lineup, I don’t have a way (or need) to spend USD natively anymore.

Sigh. Actually, there’s really no good reason for me to hold *any* USD assets in my non-registered accounts. USD assets are now, for me

  • Difficult to spend as USD
  • Problematic because they are counted against my “foreign income”, per CRA’s T1135; hold too much foreign income, and you have to file additional paperwork at tax time. I hate paperwork.

So, in conclusion,

  • I think I will shift my asset allocations slightly, tilting a bit towards Canadian Equity at the expense of International Equity; this will take time as I draw down SCHF from my non-registered portfolio
  • I will get rid of USD-denominated assets from my non-registered accounts. This will start with reversing the decision I took about a year ago when I went with a majority of ICSH in my Cash Cushion.
  1. 5 categories could easily morph into 20 if you were particular about things. For example, bonds could be split by geography, and/or by duration and/or by bond quality. The US and Canadian equity categories could be split into sectors and/or company size. The international equity categories could be split by region, country, sector, company size. The possibilities are endless, and so could the number of assets you actually hold to meet them. I don’t claim that my 5 are the right ones for you, but I’ve used them for quite a while now. ↩︎
  2. For the longest time, and for many earlier posts, I refer to this segment as “Income”. This made some sense in the days where I didn’t track “Cash” as a distinct category. But it’s time to move on. What lives here are bonds, and only bonds. ↩︎
  3. Of course, all ETFs hold some portion of cash, it’s pretty much unavoidable as you shift assets, collect dividends and so on. I don’t worry about this sort of thing; my assumption is that the ETF manager is doing their job and adhering to their published targets. That MER has to be worth something, right? ↩︎
  4. Questrade (my primary broker) doesn’t offer high interest savings accounts; at my previous broker (QTrade) this cash cushion really was cash held in a high interest savings account. ↩︎
  5. And there will always be market downturns. SORR is a common acronym thrown around; it stands for “Sequence of Returns Risk”. Basically this is the admission that there will be market downturns during retirement; SORR is the risk that those downturns happen really early in retirement and blow up your well-crafted plan because you are forced to sell into a down market. My mitigation strategy concerning SORR? I can always find a job if things got really bad… ↩︎
  6. The reason TGRO’s numbers aren’t round is because the other *GRO funds hold 80% equity while TGRO holds 90% equity. I’ve scaled TGRO’s holdings accordingly. ↩︎
dollar cut in half

Another quarter, another gambit

RobHLeave a comment

Every quarter, I convert some of my USD to CAD using Norbert’s Gambit. A good chunk of my retirement holdings are in USD, but since I spend in CAD, I need a cheap way to convert. I’ve been tracking my actual costs using Questrade’s platform for the past year. You can read about that over here.

Anyway, over the past year, the conversion has been effective. I have never paid the usual FX rates charged by Questrade (1.5% over the spot rate). My most recent conversion was the most expensive one to date, and that was a rate 0.7% over the going rate on the day I started the process. On three other occasions, I actually made out better than the spot rate, but that was because the foreign exchange rate moved in my favour in between the purchase and the sale.

My need for US cash has evaporated now that I have a no-FX fee credit card. (You can read about what cards I’m using over here.) So this makes me wonder if it’s time to get rid of the majority of my US holdings. Note this doesn’t mean that I will stop investing in US equities — that would be unwise — it just means I will stop holding assets denominated in US dollars.

The are downsides to holding USD-denominated assets, of course:

  • It adds complexity to the portfolio. AOA is the US equivalent of XGRO; both are 80/20 asset allocation ETFs. But because AOA is a US ETF, it holds a paltry amount of Canadian Equity, and I have to make up that difference elsewhere by holding pure Canadian Equity ETFs like HXT or XIC.
  • If you hold too much USD (or any foreign property) in non-registered accounts, you’ll be obliged to file a T1135 with CRA1.
  • It may limit the universe of online brokers you can deal with. Wealthsimple, for example, does not currently support USD RRIF accounts.
  • Foreign exchange can work for or against you. It’s another variable that can impact your returns. I’m not convinced this is a downside, but it does make tracking things like ACB in a non-registered account a little more tedious.

    One big hesitation I have about converting all my USD holdings would be the time I’d have to be out of the market while the Gambit runs its course. As you can see in from my tracking, each conversion means I’m not invested in AOA for 3-4 trading days. I just hate that idea. I also hate the idea of converting at a time when the CAD<->USD exchange rate is perhaps not optimal. (A low Canadian dollar would be a good thing for me in this case.)

    One place I sort of like having the USD assets is in my cash cushion, especially since US interest rates are quite a bit higher than Canadian rates. (I track current rates over at HISA and short-term bond table (Canada & US)).

    So perhaps I just need to craft a plan where I make more aggressive conversions over a fixed time frame. x% every month, with a deadline. This helps mitigate the “time out of market” and “exchange rate” issues. Crafting the plan with fixed milestones also takes emotion out of the equation; if I set a series of future transactions, then all I have to do is press the button mechanically.

    More to come on that.

    1. If your cost base exceeds $100,000 CAD ↩︎